Islam Makhachev's Top Half Attacks

Islam Makhachev Has Suffocated the Lightweight Division

This Saturday one of the best MMA fighters in the sport, Islam Makhachev, returns to rematch another all time great, Alexander Volkanovski. Since the two met at the beginning of the year, Makhachev has been on the sidelines and Alexander Volkanovski battered Yair Rodriguez.

Alexander Volkanovski is one of the best featherweights in MMA history. He’s undefeated at 145 pounds, beaten Max Holloway and Jose Aldo, and his game genuinely seems to get more refined every time he fights. Volkanovski was just starting to prepare for 145 pound title contender Ilia Topuria. When Makhachev’s original opponent, Charles Oliveira, fell out of the fight, Volkanovski decided to step up on less than two weeks notice to get another shot at the 155 pound title by rematching Makhachev.

Makhachev is probably the most suffocating grappler in the UFC today. He is calculated, methodical, and unforgiving. Makhachev lets people move just enough so they can choose their own painful adventure, but in the first fight against Volkanovski, Volkanovski was able to counter wrestle well and stay on the feet to score. Makhachev was able to make it to back mount against Volkanovski a few times, and that ultimately secured him the win.

Makhachev’s record currently sits at 24-1, with his last win being that somewhat disputed decision over Volkanovski. Before we look at the defining moments from their last fight, I wanted to review key elements of Makhachev’s game, and the simplicity behind his overwhelming success.

Islam Makhachev Is Fully Dominant From Top Half

I am a giant fan of Islam Makhachev’s top half. While top half is uniquely valuable for hitting, Makhachev expends minimal energy to pin opponents and grind them into the mat. If you’re interested, you can read all the ways to beat someone up from top half here.

When Makhachev gets his opponents to the ground he immediately reaches for the far hip with one arm and a cross face with the other. This allows him to flatten his opponent’s back to the mat so they can’t make space to reguard.

The hand on the hip will become Makhachev’s under hook. With the cross face and beginnings of that under hook Makhachev can maximize the effectiveness of his size by getting long and staying low.

Makhachev’s active toes allow him to drive into his opponent. His tight outside leg in the picture above prevents Hooker from bringing his own knee to his chest to get to butterfly guard. The under hook and cross face keep Makhachev in control of Hooker’s head and neck. All of these control points keep Makhachev long, low, and heavy, allowing him to attack submissions.

Because of how suffocating Makhachev’s top game is, his opponents often over extend their under hooks or rush to elevate with butterfly hooks so they can escape the position. We’ll often see Makhachev switch his hips to take power away from his opponent’s under hook and continue threatening to attack.

And that’s basically it. When Makhachev gets to top half the first thing he looks to do is control opposite sides hip and shoulder. Then Makhachev gets chest to chest, suffocates with pressure, and taps punches in as a distraction. When his opponents overreact, Makhachev uses submission threats to pass the guard or end the fight.

Islam Makhachev’s Top Half Submissions

Islam Makhachev has a brutally simple and effective game from top half. Unlike his former teammate Khabib Nurmagomedov, Makhachev prefers to pressure and pass opposition before hitting and hurting. This can make Makhachev seem relatively inactive, but it also preserves his energy while giving him looks at two submissions that play well off of one another, the kimura and the arm triangle choke.

Top Half Kimuras

He’ll also use the threat of the submission to improve his position.

If Makhachev’s opponent stays flat, turns their back, or does not dig the under hook he will stay low and attack their neck.

Top Half Arm Triangles

Makhachev can secure the submission, use it to pass guard, and ultimately finish in a more dominant position.

The Dynamics Of The Last And Next Fight

Islam Makhachev grapples like an old school Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighter. Makhachev takes his opponent down, works through specific pins until he’s past the legs, then he starts hitting and looking for submissions.

Makhachev wears his opponent out from pressure and submission threats until they forfeit mount, or turn away and give up their back. We saw what Makhachev did to Bobby Green above, but let’s look at another example from earlier in his career.

Makhachev was able to make it to Alexander Volkanovski’s back on a couple of occasions, but it did not come from his standard grappling procedure. Makhachev’s back takes were opportunistic responses that capitalized on Volkanovski’s scrambling.

When I wrote about their first fight I was hyper focused on Volkanovski’s ability to use hooks to make space so he could scramble back to his feet. We saw Mansour Barnaoui, Arman Tsarukyan, and Charles Oliveira have some success against Makhachev using butterfly hooks, so it made sense that we could see Volkanovski have success with a similar strategy. Instead we saw Volkanovski scramble to all fours and give up rear body locks so he could fight Makhachev’s hands. When it worked, it worked unbelievably well.

I ended my last article about their first fight with the following question. Which is more likely? Islam sufficiently weaponizing his size and pace to make the most out of the grappling exchanges. Or, Volkanovski being opportunistic enough to capitalize on the space he creates and the time he spends on the feet to win a second title. After rewatching their first fight it’s clear that opportunistic is the wrong word.

Volkanovski needs to be direct and deliberate so he can weaponize his own pace. Planning on and working around Makhachev’s game is a recipe for failure. By definition you’re leaving room for Makhachev’s offense to take place, and defense doesn’t score in MMA.

If we’re talking about likelihoods and probability, it would be negligent to not talk about managing risk. As a fighter you need to ensure the risks you take are weighted in such a way that failure does not mean the end of the night, let alone your career and overall health.

Makhachev fights extremely risk averse. He punches into clinches and throws you on your head to tire you out. If you manage to get up Makhachev will just repeat the cycle. There are little to no openings for you to capitalize on when Makhachev is playing his game.

Makhachev’s risk aversion has served him well. With only one loss on his record, Makhachev is on his way to being an all time great.

Volkanovski regularly flirts with mitigated risk. He stays on the feet, feints constantly, and draws his opposition into exchanges that favor him. Volkanovski’s offense is designed to build, subsequently de-risking every additional piece. Compound these effects over the course of a fight and you have a man running down hill.

But what about when Volkanovski can not get his offense going? What about when Volkanovski is forced to take bigger risks to properly defend and counter his opponent’s offense?

We saw what happened when Volkanovski turned away from Makhachev in open space. He got his back taken and lost a pivotal round that cost him the fight. I’m not sure that’s a risk he can afford to take again.

Conversely we saw what happened when Volkanovski wrestled along the fence and turned away to fight Makhachev’s hands. After the first round, Volkanovski successfully avoided getting put down and controlled when he wrestled on the fence. Volkanovski was so surprisingly successful that many people consider him the best fighter in the world, regardless of Makhachev winning the decision.

The risk that paid off the best was Volkanovski’s decision to lead against Makhachev. Volkanovski beat up Makhachev surprisingly bad in the fifth round, and at the end of their twenty-five minute exchange Volkanovski looked like the fresher fighter. I’m not sure how well Volkanovski’s cardio will hold up this second time around on short notice. I’m not even sure that really matters though.

This fight hardly poses any risk to Volkanovski’s legacy. The featherweight champion is fighting up a division on short notice after a recent surgery, and turning 35. Volkanovski is supposed to lose.

If Volkanovski does lose, he has another title defense lined up at his natural weight class, featherweight. Volkanovski is playing with house money right now and if he wins he will have pulled off one of the greatest achievements in combat sports history as he nears the tail end of his career. That’s a risk and a payday anyone should take.

On the surface Makhachev isn’t risking much here. He just has to go out there and do what he did again, against a man that will, in all likelihood, be in worse shape this time around. Those circumstances mean a loss could be disastrous for Makhachev’s legacy as a champion. There are many fighters that would not be willing to take this risk.

The rematch between Makhachev and Volkanovski goes down this Saturday from Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. Tune in to see who’s bet pays off.