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Transitions, Takedowns, And Pat Sabatini's Tireless Pace
Learn how Pat Sabatini blends grappling to win in the UFC
William
November 7th, 2023
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UFC 295 is this Saturday and it has survived the loss of Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic. Arguably the best fighter ever and current UFC heavyweight champion, Jones, was gifted a legacy fight against the aging Miocic. Jones tore his pec in training and will likely lose about a year of what’s left of his career. Thankfully the card still has several excellent match-ups.
Alex Pereira will try to continue his extremely improbable run by fighting former light heavyweight title holder Jiří Procházka. Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich are scheduled to fight for the interim heavyweight title in the wake of the loss of Jones vs Miocic. Before both of those fights, MMA grappling savants Diego Lopes and Pat Sabatini are starting the pay-per-view off.
Lopes is Alexa Grasso’s grappling coach, an EBI veteran, and his uncle is a coral belt. Grappling is part of Lopes’s DNA, and he makes it work better than most in MMA. You can read an in-depth break down of his game here.
Today we’re going to discuss Lopes’s opponent Sabatini, what makes him special, and what that might mean for his fight against Lopes.
Pat Sabatini’s Overwhelming Offense
Pat Sabatini is generally billed as an honest offensive wrestler. Sabatini does his best work moving forward, and he’s constantly looking for the clinch or takedown as soon as the fight starts. While Sabatini can shoot out in the open, I think his most interesting work comes from how he chains attacks near the fence.
Pat Sabatini vs Tucker Lutz Outside Trip  | Sabatini is attacking Lutz’s back while Lutz is trying to wall walk. Sabatini grabs a body lock and kicks out Lutz’s far leg. Lutz’s hips go backwards to keep his balance. Sabatini follows through with the outside trip. |
In judo you’ll hear trips like this called kosoto gake.
While Sabatini is not the most physically imposing grappler, he does have an impressive gas tank. Couple that gas tank with chain wrestling and guard passing and you get Sabatini’s overwhelming offense.
Sabatini’s fights tend to snowball as he effortlessly cycles though takedowns, guard passes, and punching to pressure his opponents.
Pat Sabatini vs TJ Laramie Chest To Back Control  | Sabatini is attacking Laramie’s back so the latter tries to stand and dig an under hook. Sabatini cycles between a seat belt and under hooks while passing to mount, only to end up on Laramie’s back as the latter turns away again. Sabatini ends by wrist riding to break Laramie’s base so he can keep hitting him. |
Sabatini has at times been unfairly criticized as a boring backpacker. I’d say the onus is on his opponents to escape the position.
If you take a look at Sabatini’s whole career you’ll see a grappler that is regularly integrating punches into guard passing and submissions. When he gets to the back, he’s hard to shake off and can fight more conservatively to maintain the position, but that doesn’t mean he issn’t looking for submission wins along the way.
Pat Sabatini vs Lucas Almeida Arm Triangle Choke  | Sabatini is trying to pass Almeida’s half guard. As Almeida tries to turn in to Sabatini, he pins Almeida’s arm to the floor to start punching him. Almeida desperately gets a frame in and Sabatini uses the position to secure an arm triangle choke. Sabatini passes for the finish. |
Pat Sabatini Blends Grappling Better Than Most
At first glance another wrestler might not be the most exciting thing. There are already plenty of wrestlers in the UFC with great takedowns, and some even use submissions along the way.
To his credit, Sabatini is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt that regularly blends the two skillsets. What’s most impressive to me is how Sabatini integrates submissions into his game so he can reclaim positional advantages after he’s lost them.
Pat Sabatini vs Tucker Lutz Guillotine Choke → Mount → Back Mount  | Lutz wrestles up on Sabatini so Sabatini grabs a guillotine choke. Lutz is forced to give up mount to avoid submitting. Sabatini steps over Lutz’s arm before posturing up to hit him. Lutz turns over to avoid punishment so Sabatini throws the hooks in and takes his back. |
Sabatini has even shown savvy defensive grappling that immediately integrates into his submissions from the bottom.
Pat Sabatini vs Jamal Emmers
Back Escape → Heel Hook
 |  |
In the first sequence Emmers is taking advantage of hurting Sabatini on the feet. After dropping Sabatini, Emmers has passed to mount and back mount to try to finish him. Sabatini does an excellent job fighting Emmers’s hands to stop the rear naked choke. From there he gets his back to the floor to escape the position. As Emmers follows, Sabatini scoots away to make space and insert a butterfly hook. Emmers puts his hands on the mat above Sabatini so Sabatini locks in double under hooks to control posture, prevent any more punches, and play guard to get his wits back.
In the second sequence, Sabatini is scooping a leg to enter K guard. Emmers falls back to attack a toe hold while Sabatini attacks the heel hook. Shortly after the exchange starts Emmers learns why that’s not a fair trade. Sabatini eats the toe hold and shreds Emmers’s knee.
Sabatini’s willingness to jump on submissions might end up being more trouble than it’s worth in his next fight.
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At UFC 295 Pat Sabatini Takes On Another Great Grappler
This Saturday Pat Sabatini squares off against another highly regarded prospect, Diego Lopes. There are two important parts of Lopes’s style that might pose significant complications for Sabatini.
Scrambling With Submissions
Diego Lopes has shown impressive scrambling ability in his UFC fights. Lopes regularly uses leg locks to get off the bottom, and easily jumps from limb attacks to chokes.
Diego Lopes vs Joanderson Brito Heel Hook → Wrestle Up → Anaconda  | Lopes upkicks Brito as advances. Lopes’s legs drop in front of Brito and he inverts on a heel hook. Brito kicks out and Lopes stands up before Brito tries to wrestle. Brito comes forward and puts his head into Lopes’s arm pit. Lopes counters with the anaconda choke attempt. |
If Pat Sabatini takes Lopes down, what’s stopping the latter from attacking a submission to stall Sabatini’s offense and help Lopes get up?
Attacking In Transition
Diego Lopes does an excellent job latching on to limbs in transition. Even when this doesn’t give him submission wins, his opponent is forced to stop attacking. Lopes’s all out offense can act as its own defense.
Diego Lopes vs Movsar Evloev Kimura Body Lock Counter  | After striking Lopes from the back body lock, Evloev decides to drop down on a takedown. Lopes has a kimura grip and decides to fall back and attempt to counter with it ahead of Evloev settling in to the position. Lopes brings Evloev’s arm behind his back so Evloev is forced to roll and save his shoulder. |
Where The Rubber Meets The Road
This fight is Sabatini’s to lose as long as he stays disciplined and is okay with being a bit more boring. If Sabatini wants to get more offensive, he runs the risk of losing a firefight.
Lopes hasn’t been stopped in nearly 6 years. In that fight he lost by a ground and pound stoppage that looked more like an exhaustion TKO than anything else. In Lopes’s UFC run he’s hardly been fazed, let alone stopped or hurt.
Sabatini, on the other hand, was stopped by Damon Jackson and badly hurt by Jamal Emmers. He ended up winning the latter, but as the fight extends on the feet, Sabatini does not have the power nor craft to keep up with Lopes.
On the floor Sabatini has also sacrificed positions for submission attempts. It hasn’t hurt him too badly yet, but giving up position against an experienced grappler like Lopes sounds like suicide.
Lopes’s wrestling isn’t anywhere near as technical nor effective as Sabatini’s. If Sabatini can take the fight to the floor and keep his arms inside, I see him cruising to a decision. If he gives Lopes too much room to work, he’ll probably lose some scrambles en route to letting the fight slip out of his hands.
Regardless of how the fight goes, I’m just happy to see two stellar grapplers getting a spot on a big pay-per-view card. Tune in to UFC 295 on Saturday to see which contender takes another step forward in the incredible featherweight division.
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