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2023's Last MMA Fight
This Japanese MMA showcase could have important implications for the sport at large
William
January 9th, 2024
First Things First
2023’s last day gave us one of its most fun fights. Rizin 45’s headlining match-up, Kyoji Horiguchi vs Makoto Shinryu, was an all action affair on the feet and floor. Today we’re breaking down while it was so cool and what could mean for the larger MMA landscape. Before we do I want to do a bit of housekeeping.
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What's In Today's Letter?
Rizin’s New Year’s Eve:
Promising Prospect vs Elite Veteran
The final major fight card of 2023 had one of the most fun fights of the year. Japanese karate boxing king Kyoji Horiguchi took on super prospect Makoto Shinryu.
Horiguchi has been one of the coolest fighters in the world for a while. He stands in a long, deep karate stance that allows him to spring in and out of hard straight strikes and takedowns. A natural 125er, Horiguchi has won belts at 125 and 135 in Rizin and Bellator, and he hasn’t lost at 125 since losing a title shot against Demetrious Johnson at age 25.
Shinryu is a young giant flyweight. The 23 year old pro has been fighting since 16, and had only lost once by split decision five years ago. Shinryu seems like next one up at 125.
This New Years Eve main event was a rematch after an accidental eye poke turned their last fight into a no contest. The basic question of the match was, could the elite veteran technician squeeze out another good win from their prime? Or, would the strong prospect shock the world on their way to wrestling away an improbable victory from a fan favorite?
The Match-Up’s Dynamics
From the first real exchange of the fight Shinryu’s plan was clear. Shoot on the legs, climb the body, and get behind Horiguchi.
Low Single → Head Outside Body Lock  | Shinryu shoots from far out and Horiguchi sprawls his legs away. Shinryu gets an under hook and drives Horiguchi into the corner. Shinryu gets back to his feet and secures a body lock while Horiguchi tries to counter with a guillotine. |
Shinryu’s posture at the end of this exchange prevented Horiguchi from really threatening him with the guillotine choke. If your head is outside you can stay safe by standing tall and getting your chin to the far shoulder like Shinryu did.
Ultimately this fight turned into a showcase for some cool and crafty clinch counters from Horiguchi.
The Counters
Later in the round Horiguchi was stuck in Shiniryu’s back body lock. Horiguchi took the opportunity to throw some of the most unique elbows I’ve ever seen.
 | Shinryu is walking Horiguchi forward with knees from the back body lock. Horiguchi puts a hand to the mat so he can post and twist off it to throw hard elbows. |
When Shinryu got Horiguchi to the corner, Horiguchi used elbows to distract his opponent and wrestle back into him.
 | Shinryu has a back hook in and is trying to use a power half to control Horiguchi’s posture. Horiguchi hand fights and distracts Shinryu with elbows to the thigh. Shinryu tries to hit him back, so Horiguchi uses the space to turn back in for his own body lock. |
As the fight went on Shinryu started to slowed down and Horigchui got more offensive.
Harai Goshi & Uchi Mata Atttempt → Sasae-Tsurikomi-Ashi → Scramble To  | The ropes block Horiguchi’s harai goshi and uchi mata attempts. Horiguchi turns back in for the under - over control. Horiguchi turns and trips Shinryu. When Horiguchi tries to hit Shinryu, he rolls through. Horiguchi scrambles back to butterfly guard. |
The Finish
Midway through the second round Shinryu had really shot his wad trying to keep up with Horiguchi’s craft and composure.
Rear Naked Choke  | Horiguchi hits Shinryu from behind. Shinryu tries to stand so Horiguchi pulls him backward to break his base and put a hook in. Horiguchi keeps punching so Shinryu looks up to stand, giving Horiguchi the space for the rear naked choke. |
Why Couldn’t Horiguchi Get The Guillotine?
Before Kyoji Horiguchi got his rear naked choke finish he sold out on a few guillotine choke attempts. These chokes were (worryingly) familiar to submission attempts that have left Horiguchi’s teammate, Dustin Poirier, stuck fighting back from a losing position.
The guillotine chokes were tight, but they ended with Horiguchi flat on his back under the bigger and younger Makoto Shinryu. The weirdest thing about the exchanges was Shinryu barely defended them. The submissions just kind of failed. Let’s look at the attempts below to explain why.
The arm in guillotine choke is much different than the no arm guillotine. When you have no arms obstructing your choke, you essentially arch your back as you pull your arms into their neck to close the space and get the submission.
To finish the arm in guillotine choke, you want to crunch your opponent’s chin down over your grip. There are several ways to accomplish this, but, the most obvious element missing from Horiguchi’s attempts was that he did not sit up to cover Shinryu’s shoulders with his chest.
Let’s contrast Horiguchi’s with Bryan Ortega’s highlight reel finish over Cub Swanson.
 |  |
As soon as Ortega leaps into the guillotine choke he gets his chest high, over Swanson’s shoulders. This keeps Swanson’s chin crunched down, obstructing his airway, so he can finish the submission.
If Horiguchi had sat up more to bring his chest over Shinryu’s shoulders, he would have had a better shot at finishing the choke.
Overall the fight was an equally technical and exciting showcase for Rizin and Japanese MMA. Going into 2024, Rizin is well positioned to take up a larger portion of the global MMA market.
Can Japanese MMA Fill An Upcoming Void?
The UFC is being brought to court this year and that could reduce their ability to hold fighters in their roster. The PFL bought Bellator to consolidate two organizations under one super brand. ONE Championship claims to be the leader of Asian MMA, poised to compete with the UFC, but they seem to be running out of money. Then you have Rizin who has been chugging along in the background for the better part of the decade.
When you look at worldwide Google Trends for an indication of who might be the true number two promotion, two things stand out:
Only KSW had a larger peak in search volume than Rizin over the past 12 months. ONE barely registers.
When you look at it from a regionalized perspective, Rizin dominates Japan.
I’m under no illusions that Rizin is going to compete with the UFC this year, but, considering ONE Championship’s probable collapse, Rizin seems in a perfect position to scoop up tons of Asian MMA talented. More importantly, Japan has a rich MMA history spanning the entire length of the sport. There are no two ways about it, owning Japan is a major marketshare win.
Japanense MMA in particular is showing signs of a grappling renaissance. Other than the two fighters featured today, the UFC has three dynamic prospects in Rinya Nakamura, Rei Tsuruya, and Tatsuro Taira. All three fight below 145 and are under 30; Tsuruya and Taira are 21 and 23.
Stick around here for coverage of them, and the rest of the MMA world. Considering the news mentioned above, we could be in for one of the most historically important years in MMA history.
Citations & Further Viewing
Rizin has generously uploaded the entire fight to their yYutube channel. Check it out below:
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