First Things First

After a stretch of boring cards at the UFC Apex, UFC 300 is finally here. And it’s unbelievable from top to bottom. Here we're going to preview a match-up from UFC 300 between two of the most dynamic grapplers in the UFC.

Charles Oliveira vs Arman Tsarukyan

Charles Oliveira is the best finisher in the UFC and that's not hyperbole. He has a UFC record 20 finishes, and 16 of those are submissions.

After missing a title rematch against Islam Makhachev due to injury, Charles Oliveira has been rescheduled to take on rising star Arman Tsarukyan. Both men are dominant, but Arman is crushing where Oliveira is slick and smooth.

Arman is only 27 but he's already racked up an 8-2 record in the UFC. One of those losses came against future champion Makhachev. The other was a hotly contested decision loss against Mateusz Gamrot.

Arman is jacked, agile, and breaks people by wrestling them to the mat over and over again. But can he do that against the UFC's best submission specialist? Yes.

Guard Play

Early in Oliveira's career he was committed to guard play. His first six wins were all submissions, including his debut.

Oliveira has since moved from 145 to 155, and his opposition has improved. The triangle chokes and high guard work aren't as available as they once were. But Oliveira's guard has evolved to meet new demands.

Oliveira will still attack his opponents' posture. In response, they stand to free themselves, pass his guard, and hit him. That only gives Oliveira space to grab their legs, play open guard, and use his Brazilian jiu-jitsu to get back to his feet.

I don't think Oliveira’s leg entanglements and guard play will matter too much against Arman for two main reasons.

First of all, early in Arman's career, he took on Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and ADCC World Champion Davi Ramos. He repeatedly put Ramos on his back and played against him in guard. Ramos attacked, but couldn't get anything going.

When Ramos did actually get a leg entanglement on Arman, Arman simply pulled out and started wrestling on the feet.

I know what you're thinking. Ramos is good, but he's no Oliveira and Arman has never had to deal with anyone that attacks like he does. I'll say the inverse thing back to you.

Oliveira’s bottom game builds upon itself. He gets to full guard, attacks posture until his opponent gives him room to scoop a leg, and then he attacks a with variety of open guards and leg locks until he can get back to his feet. Barring that one transitory moment against Ramos, Arman simply isn’t there to be scored on.

There's a reason no one gets close to attacking Arman on the floor. He isn't there for it. Generally he keeps his arms and legs inside and enjoy the ride.

Look at the picture above. Notice how you can’t see Arman’s hips nor legs? He’s so low and tight he has completely prevented Ramos’s offense from guard before it can start. Not a good sign for someone that relies on grabbing the legs like Oliveira does.

In the picture above we see two things. One, Oliveira grabbing Beneil Dariush’s feet to start attacking his base. And, two, Tsarukyan keeping his feet so far back his base is strong and safe. That does not bode well for Oliveira on bottom.

Let's back up a step and look at their takedowns. Is the fight even going to make it to the floor?

Takedowns

Arman wins his fights mainly by overwhelming his opponents with wrestling. This presents a serious problem for Oliveira.

Oliveira is tall and long. His hips are just there for the taking for someone that shoots low like Arman. I have no reason to believe Arman won't get the takedown whenever he wants it.

You might be thinking, maybe Oliveira can intercept him with strikes on the way in. Maybe.

Or, maybe, Arman is fast enough to avoid the knees, ride the kicks in, and you actually don't want to be on one leg against Arman.

Arman has been known to counter knees more punishingly than this.

The most interesting thing is how Arman reshoots and mat returns his opponents. This is the second reason why Oliveira getting back to his feet doesn't really matter against Arman.

When Oliveira gets back to his feet, he eventually works to distance so he can pick his opponents apart and make the most of his length. That's just not there against Arman.

Arman is a master of beating his opponents to the next position. When they start getting up, Arman will grab a limb and let them slide into rear body locks. Then he throws them on their head again. And again and again.

Where can Oliveira win then?

Oliveira's Saving Grace

Don't read this and think it's a mismatch. Oliveira has the UFC finishing record for a reason. Two of Oliveira's last four wins came from knocking out top five lightweights Michael Chandler and Beneil Dariush.

But it's not as simple as, "Oliveira needs to strike". Oliveira needs to specifically target the entrances and exits to the clinch.

Arman does not have the best defense on the feet. His hands and his head can be stiff and robotic. When he breaks from the clinch, he can stay in wrestling mode and let his hands drop to the floor. Against a dynamo like Oliveira, that could be a fight-ending disaster.

The Final Word

The old guard of all-action lightweights is on the brink of being pushed out of the top five. Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier, Oliveira, and Beneil Dariush are 35, 35, 34, and 34. Arman has already claimed Dariush's scalp, and it looks like he's going to do the same to Oliveira.

Arman is young, his strengths take advantage of Oliveira's liabilities, and I just don't think Oliveira will have the gas to punish Arman late.

In Oliveira's title-losing fight to Islam Makhachev, he showed the pro and con of defaulting to a Brazilian jiu-jitsu guard. Yes, it can help you attack to stand. But it also gives you a reason to settle. It gives you an out. It lets you say, "I can stay under my opponent because eventually I will get a submission."

This whole grappling conversation centers around “How will Arman deal with Oliveira’s guard.” But the very existence of that question points to a problem. It means Oliveira is admitting planning on playing cactch-up.

Oliveira being in guard is a function of Arman’s offense. It’s like asking “How are you planning on coming back after getting scored on?” And doing that with someone as skilled, young, and dangerous as Arman is a huge liability. That’s why I can’t pick Oliveira.

Can Oliveira push for one last run? Or is Arman really an uncrowned king? Tune in to UFC 300 tomorrow to find out.

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